After an explosive weekend, the market breaks its important supports. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) begin a deeper structural shift to the downside. What exactly is it? We take stock.
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Analysis
Last week , I raised several scenarios for Bitcoin (BTC) , including a bullish one . The zone that had to retain all the assumptions was that of the $40,000 , which we could specify with an analysis of the PAXG . It became clear that the price of Bitcoin yielded to bearish pressures without too much difficulty.
What is the scenario to expect? How to properly approach this phase of the market?
Let’s start our analysis with a point on the monthly view , which will close in 7 days. The latter gives us an interesting indication of the closing which will completely tip us into this famous “ bear market ” .
We can very easily see that price absolutely needs to preserve a close above $35,000 in order not to trigger the much larger retracement scenario . In the event of a close below this point , the old ATH at $20,000 becomes an area of interest , but the specific area we want to retest is between $13,700 and $10,000 .
Why so low?
This corresponds to the last top which, once broken upwards, had generated the bullish scenario that we have experienced. Since then, these have not been retested and they will no doubt act as prime buying zones .
Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) and 1M
As always, let’s clarify our observations on the weekly view.
The pivot zone of $ 40,000 did break down, and now we have seen a bearish acceleration . The next support of choice remains $30,000 – $32,000 . The latter should be quickly tested, given the current configuration.
Again, there are several scenarios to keep in mind:
- A technical rebound is made on the support of $30,000 , and validates the breakout of $40,000 by retesting it.
- The price rebounds and regains the lost zone, the move retraces higher.
- The price directly breaks through the support and accelerates again.
For now, I expect a technical bounce towards $40,000 . This point will be a place of choice for the taking of shorts.
Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) and 1W
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Ether (ETH) Technical Analysis
Now let’s move on to the analysis of Ether (ETH) .
Last week we mentioned the need to return to the $3,630 zone to reinitiate a bullish momentum , otherwise the price of ETH would remain in a downtrend . The monthly view gives us, again, the areas to hold so as not to continue this correction.
A close below $2,200 would trigger this steep fall scenario. Indeed, the next big support is located at $1,130 , corresponding to the last top broken and never retested.
If we extrapolate a little, the capitulation of this movement will then be at $435 , the lowest point. Obviously, for the moment this scenario cannot be realized until we have the closing point of the month .
Analysis of Ether (ETH) in 1M
If we zoom in to the weekly view , we can already note the $3,000 area as a pivot point that would allow for short positions on a retracement. The support level is at $1,900 . The price seems on track to return to this area to test it again.
It will be necessary to observe the movements to follow and not to be overwhelmed, we will prefer to buy the supports and take profits on the resistances / pivot zones.
Analysis of Ether (ETH) in 1W
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Solana (SOL) Technical Analysis
I would like to provide an update on Solana (SOL) , as I know this cryptocurrency is very popular for many. I posted an initial analysis on December 10, 2021 on my Twitter account:
From now on, the price movements have had plenty of time to develop, thus validating the theory initially observed. The price of SOL will inevitably return to the $55 area which corresponds to the last untested high before the bullish wave. This will allow you to take medium-term buy positions to profit in the worst case from a bullish retracement , and in the best from a new bullish wave.
Analysis of Solana (SOL) in 3D
Conclusion
Bitcoin (BTC) lost its important support at $40,000 , sparking a larger bearish move . For now, the support at $30,000 – $32,000 remains the most likely area for a timeout of the move. It will be necessary to watch the monthly close , which will give an overview of the continuation with a bearish continuation or a bullish recovery. The $40,000 becomes a sell zone now.
On the Ether (ETH) side , the configuration remains essentially the same. It will be necessary to keep the $2,200 at the end of the month, and the $1,900 at the end of the week. Otherwise, the bearish continuation could be much more important.
For Solana (SOL) , the sell signals were observable in the past weeks . Now, the $55 area will provide an attractive buying point for us to play a bullish technical bounce.